The cryptocurrency market is entering the fourth quarter (Q4) amid expectations of a traditional rally known as “Uptober. Investors are anticipating an immediate surge across all major crypto assets; however, Ripple’s “North Star,” XRP, seems poised to chart its own course. The primary driver of the market was a robust conclusion to the third quarter. Amid a significant influx of capital into U.S. spot ETFs, the token recorded a return of +48.1%, marking its strongest Q3 performance since 2022. XRP settled at $1.54, fully erasing its first-half losses and indicating a bullish signal on the weekly timeframe.
However, that rapid surge also created local overbought conditions, which could leave the bulls mired in consolidation. September’s rally was largely propelled by a short squeeze, characterised by the compelled liquidation of short positions. The futures market is currently experiencing an excess of leverage. For the uptrend to sustain itself in a robust manner, a technical pullback and a retest of support within the 1.30–1.40 range is necessary. October presents an opportune moment for a reset. Data clearly indicates why bulls should temper their expectations regarding an immediate continuation of the rally: historically, October has been XRP’s least favourable month of the year.
The average return for the month stands at -5.14%, whereas the median return is recorded at -2.97%. XRP has consistently concluded October at a lower value in previous cycles, including in 2024 and 2025. Simultaneously, the average return for the entire fourth quarter appears noteworthy at +133.3%. The reason is that most liquidity enters the market with a delay, resulting in the quarter’s median return remaining in negative territory at -8.00%.
The primary period for capital deployment has traditionally occurred in late autumn: November records a median return of +80.2%, whereas December upholds a robust +63.1%. XRP is poised at the brink of a robust bull cycle; however, technical indicators suggest that an immediate acceleration at the onset of the quarter is unlikely. October is expected to usher in a prolonged sideways trend or a modest correction.
