As bitcoin persists in its upward trajectory, often referred to by analysts as a bear market rally, both traders and investors are ramping up their profit-taking activities. Daily realized profits have surged to heights not observed since early December 2025, while unrealized profits remain close to levels typically linked with heightened distribution activity. A recent report reveals that BTC has experienced a remarkable surge of 37% since the start of April. The recent rally can be attributed to a mix of alleviating macroeconomic pressures, previous undervaluation, and a significant surge in demand for perpetual futures. During the ongoing rally, the top digital asset has achieved a high not witnessed in the past three months.
On May 4, Bitcoin holders recorded daily profits of 14,600 BTC, a figure that hasn’t been observed since December 10. This represents the peak profit realization since December 2025, a time when BTC was valued over $90,000. As traders find themselves back in the green, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio has climbed above 1.016, maintaining a position above 1.00. The metric has remained in profitable territory since mid-April. According to analysts, historical data indicates that heightened realized profits at significant resistance levels often signal local tops or extended consolidation phases. The current rally indicates that the Bitcoin market may experience one of two potential outcomes.
For the first time since December 22, 2025, Bitcoin holders are seeing net profits of at least 20,000 BTC on a 30-day rolling basis. This trend comes on the heels of significant net losses recorded in February and March, a time when investor realization plummeted to a staggering -398,000 BTC. Even with traders enjoying a 30-day net profit of 20,000 BTC, this amount still falls significantly short of the 130,000–200,000 BTC range typically linked to bullish market conditions. Simultaneously, they find themselves with their highest unrealized profit margin since June 2025.
Unfortunately, this level historically signals an increased risk of correction, as there is a stronger motivation to secure profits. Meanwhile, the demand for perpetual futures has continued to grow, maintaining the speculative atmosphere that sparked the rally in April. Spot demand continues to contract, albeit at a less severe pace compared to early 2026. The current market environment, characterized by muted exchange inflows, suggests a significant correction is underway, yet it has not hit a distributional peak.