Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 remains a widely discussed objective within the market for 2026. However, a bearish perspective suggests that this goal is increasingly becoming less attainable as price movements show signs of weakening beneath the $80,000 threshold. This bearish outlook originated from a crypto analyst on the social media platform X, who forecasted that Bitcoin will not reach the $100,000 price level again this year due to its price action being confined within a controlled trap inside an ascending channel. Bitcoin has not traded above $100,000 in 2026, and with the calendar now approaching the midpoint of the year, the window for a recovery beyond six figures is rapidly diminishing. The price action over the past two months has instead been characterised by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin establishing a series of progressively higher highs and higher lows from its February low just above $60,000.
The upper boundary has consistently functioned as a resistance level on multiple occasions, whereas the green lower trendline has played a crucial role as the primary support, sustaining the ongoing recovery. However, that same channel suggests a bearish argument. An ascending channel may appear bullish at first glance due to the upward movement of prices; however, it has the potential to evolve into a distribution structure if each upward push begins to lose momentum. According to analyst, Bitcoin’s gradual ascent within the channel has fostered a false sense of strength, leading retail traders to believe that a resurgence towards $100,000 is still in the works.
The significant moment that exposed the illusory strength was the transition into the $82,000 CME gap. Bitcoin reached that CME gap in early May, completed the target, and subsequently faced multiple rejections between May 6 and May 11. This represented a classic setup prior to the subsequent decline. As illustrated in the chart above, Bitcoin is retracing to the lower half of the channel, thereby exerting pressure on the green support line. If that support breaks, the structure would no longer resemble a steady recovery and would indicate the onset of a decline towards a new bottom. The initial phase towards a new low involves a breach of the ascending channel.
From there, the next target is around 70,000, followed by a deeper move to new lows at 60,000. The chart extends the bearish trajectory further, with a dotted projection indicating a decline to as low as $50,000 by early July. A rally to $100,000 necessitates a robust level of confidence, ample liquidity, and decisive momentum surpassing the resistance level of $82,000. Bitcoin will also need to reclaim the 200-day moving average around this same level. According to prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% probability that the Bitcoin price will break above $100,000 again before January 2027.