Bitcoin is currently hovering in a narrow band between $70,000 and $73,000, consistently struggling to surpass the $73,000 mark despite achieving its most significant weekly gain amid the Iran conflict and maintaining its position above the ascending 50-day moving average. Experts indicate that bitcoin must surpass significant levels — a minimum of $75,000, and possibly stabilize above $74,000 prior to exceeding $80,000 — to validate a resurgence in bullish momentum. Ether and other major tokens remain range-bound, while certain altcoins experience a downturn. This comes as geopolitical tensions surrounding a fragile ceasefire in Iran and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contribute to a cautious market atmosphere and volatile oil prices. Bitcoin pulled back to $71,843 on Friday following a third attempt to breach $73,000, which was met with selling pressure on Thursday. This level has consistently rejected the price on every rally since the Iran conflict began in late February. The retreat is unassuming. Bitcoin has surged 7.9% this week, marking its most robust weekly performance of the war to date, as it maintains a position above the 50-day moving average, which has begun to trend upward for the first time since the onset of the conflict.
Ether is currently priced at $2,189, reflecting a 6.6% increase over the week. Solana’s SOL surged by 5.1%, reaching a price of $83.09. XRP surged by 2.8%, reaching a price of $1.34. Dogecoin surged by 2.4%, reaching a price of $0.092. The entire top 10 is showing positive movement on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month. However, $73,000 appears to be a significant barrier. The level has restricted bitcoin on three occasions since the ceasefire was declared on Tuesday — with each attempt resulting in a rally that quickly dissipated within hours. The pattern mirrors the pre-ceasefire range, merely elevated. Bitcoin has shifted its range, now fluctuating between $70,000 and $73,000, rather than the previous grind between $65,000 and $73,000. “We will need to wait for the price to rise above $75,000 before we can speak of the market entering an active bullish phase,” said Alex Kuptsikevich. He noted that bitcoin continues to hold above the 50-day moving average, bolstering short-term bullish sentiment, but pointed out the persistent rejection at $73,000 as the critical barrier that must be overcome.
Mike Novogratz has raised expectations, stating that for bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory, it must first consolidate above $74,000 and then break through the $80,000 mark. “Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he stated. The ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s rally is showing signs of unraveling. Iran has leveled accusations against the U.S., claiming that it has violated three specific clauses of the agreement. The Strait of Hormuz is currently only partially reopened, facing “technical limitations.” Oil has made a notable recovery from its staggering 15% single-day drop, now trading back above the $97 mark. Ether’s configuration is likewise confined within a range. The token experienced a 4% decline from its Wednesday high, settling at $2,189. Kuptsikevich characterized this movement as market noise within a consolidation range of $2,000 to $2,400. “A breakout beyond this calm consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he stated.
In the altcoin arena, Algorand experienced a significant decline of 11.4%, while Aptos and Polkadot both saw a drop of 6.1%. This trend indicates a divergence among altcoins, a phenomenon often observed when traders are reallocating their investments instead of injecting new capital into the market. The Fear and Greed Index has surged out of single digits for the first time in more than a month. If the ceasefire holds over the weekend and the Strait continues to open, $73,000 will face its fourth test with momentum supporting it. Regardless of whether Tehran’s grievances escalate or Trump’s rhetoric shifts, the retreat toward the $68,000 to $70,000 range remains the path of least resistance.