Bitcoin is confronting a pivotal $140,000 question: will it plunge to $10,000 or soar to $150,000? The answer hinges completely on the Wall Street firm you choose to trust. One claims the bubble is bursting. Another source claims this is the buying opportunity of the year. Mike McGlone reiterated his bearish stance on bitcoin this week, cautioning about a “bursting crypto bubble” and the possibility of a drop to $10,000. “Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting,” McGlone wrote on X on April 2, highlighting what he refers to as bitcoin’s ‘most traded price since 2017.’ His argument focuses on the competitive landscape. “Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency, launched in 2009.” However, McGlone has noted that [it] now contends with millions of digital asset competitors, drawing a comparison to gold, which only faces three significant rivals: silver, platinum, and palladium. As bitcoin hovers near $69,000 following a challenging Q1 that recorded a decline exceeding 22%—the steepest quarterly drop since 2018—McGlone’s reversion thesis gains new support. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani is dismissing the notion entirely.
In a research note earlier this year that has gained significant traction on Wall Street, Chhugani and his team asserted “with reasonable confidence that bitcoin and broader digital asset markets have bottomed,” reaffirming their price target of $150,000 for 2026 and $200,000 for 2027. Bernstein’s framing makes the call particularly aggressive: the firm labeled this the “weakest bitcoin bear case in history,” contending that institutional demand via spot bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally altered the market’s structure. The Bernstein team contended that the conventional four-year bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant, as institutional demand via ETFs has altered the market’s framework. Mati Greenspan provided a vivid rejection, stating to CoinDesk that for bitcoin to return to $10,000 “we’d need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to stop working.” Greenspan remarked that analysts who make such predictions “often get lost in short-term macro noise, and sometimes they extrapolate that into silly conclusions.” Next up is Arthur Hayes. The BitMEX co-founder believes bitcoin is headed for $200,000, not $10,000, and he’s wagering that Federal Reserve liquidity injections will drive it to that level. This debate is unfolding amidst a climate of fear within the crypto community. On April 6, Bitcoin’s fear and greed index registered at 13. That’s “extreme fear.”
On April 2, the reading fell to 8. In February, it reached 5, marking the lowest point since the Terra-Luna collapse that erased $40 billion in June 2022. The fear has persisted for 46 consecutive days now. The previous instance of such prolonged negativity occurred following the collapse of FTX in November 2022. Each of those past fear extremes—COVID in March 2020, the China mining ban in May 2021, and the Terra-Luna implosion—ultimately served as a buy signal. Prices bounced back within months on each occasion. What sets 2026 apart from all previous bitcoin crashes is the presence of spot ETFs. They were absent during all of those previous moments of fear. Indeed, ETFs have just seen $87 million in net outflows, marking the sixth consecutive day of losses. However, institutional money remains firmly in place. Nobody is facing bankruptcy. No exchange has halted withdrawals. All stablecoins have maintained their peg successfully. That’s Bernstein’s key takeaway. The 25% decline observed since January occurred in the absence of any systemic failures. No protocol experienced a catastrophic failure. No contagion spread. In previous bear markets of this magnitude, there has always been a breaking point.
The Federal Reserve convenes on April 28-29. Currently, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq stands at 0.71, indicating that any unexpected hawkish developments could have significant implications. For McGlone’s $10,000 prediction to materialize, bitcoin would have to plummet 85% from its current position. Despite the harsh downturn in 2022, which saw prices plummet from $69,000 to $15,500, the market only experienced a 77% loss. For Bernstein’s $150,000 target to be realized, bitcoin must see a doubling in value. That necessitates a resurgence of risk appetite following a harsh beginning to April. The market’s fear gauge indicates that McGlone’s assessment is accurate. History indicates that he is likely mistaken.