Over $290 million flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs last week as a widespread “risk-off” sentiment persists in global markets, driven by escalating geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. Farside Investors’ data reveals that between March 24 and March 27, there were cumulative weekly outflows totaling approximately $296 million, primarily driven by significant redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT and other prominent funds. On Friday, the most significant single-day shift was driven by IBIT, resulting in $225.5 million in total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. This capped off a tumultuous week that started with robust inflows of $167.2 million on Monday, only for sentiment to take a downturn thereafter. “Risk-off is clearly the mood amongst markets,” Josh Gilbert, market analyst, highlighting Bitcoin’s drop to a three-week low and the S&P 500’s fifth consecutive weekly loss—marking its longest losing streak since 2022. “The macro forces working against it are compounding,” he stated. “Triple-digit oil is igniting inflation concerns, extending rate cut expectations, and consequently eliminating the crucial catalyst that risk assets require to establish a floor.”
Geopolitical risk surged on Monday as President Donald Trump stated in an interview that he could “take the oil in Iran” and might consider seizing Kharg Island, which serves as the nation’s primary fuel hub. Gilbert indicated that a ceasefire might trigger a “strong relief rally,” yet cautioned that, in the absence of credible de-escalation, markets are likely to stay defensive, leading to “more choppy sessions ahead.” Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, shared with Decrypt that the “risk-off” sentiment was the main catalyst, although he pointed out that last week’s outflow “doesn’t seem that dramatic compared to the recent trends.” He noted “I believe the primary factor was the overall risk-off sentiment, especially as hopes for a ceasefire diminished and peace negotiations stumbled as the week came to a close.” Pratik Kala reiterated that perspective, linking the outflows to “risk-off sentiment and end of quarter rebalancing,” while stating to Decrypt that the $290 million figure is “quite normal.”
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s relative strength compared to other asset classes is “notable and very supportive”—and warned against interpreting weekly flow data as having structural significance. “ETF inflows and outflows represent more than just directional funds—hedge funds engage in significant basis trading,” Kala stated. “Consequently, there are no definitive limits or thresholds that would indicate a structural change.” Gilbert noted that Bitcoin has managed to maintain its position relatively well amid the conflict, describing it as “a surprising standout despite its risk status as an asset.” However, he cautioned that the continuing tensions indicate it is “in no way immune to this indiscriminate sell-off.”
He observed that the market is progressively factoring in a Fed rate hike, “a far cry from the multiple cuts the market was pricing in just months ago,” and highlighted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks as a possible additional pressure point. On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Dastan, the sentiment is decidedly bearish, as users are estimating a 56.8% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 instead of rising to $84,000. Bitcoin is currently priced at $67,574, reflecting a 1.4% increase over the past 24 hours, following a dip into the $65,000 range earlier on Monday, as reported.