A new research report, which explores the intersection of quantum computing and bitcoin security, has concluded that although quantum technology may one day pose a challenge to the network’s cryptography, the threat is not immediate. The study reveals that current quantum systems function within what researchers refer to as the “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” era, characterized by machines that generally operate with fewer than 100 logical qubits and constrained computational depth. To break bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography, one would need a minimum of 2,330 logical qubits and millions to billions of quantum operations, which far exceeds current technological capabilities. Rather than experiencing an abrupt “Q-day” that leads to the collapse of bitcoin security, researchers contend that advancements in quantum technology will probably develop through a sequence of incremental milestones.
These stages encompass early scientific applications, including materials simulation and chemistry, leading to the eventual capability to challenge weak cryptographic systems. It is only in later stages that quantum computers could start to pose a threat to bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, which is responsible for securing private keys and transactions. Even then, attacks would likely be gradual and expensive, necessitating substantial computational resources. The report estimates that electricity costs alone could reach approximately $100,000 to break a single bitcoin key in early quantum attack scenarios. Researchers estimate that approximately 35% of the total Bitcoin supply could theoretically be vulnerable to future quantum risks.
This encompasses approximately 1.7 million BTC held in older address types that are thought to be lost, along with around 5.2 million BTC in reusable addresses that have the potential to be transitioned to more secure formats. Nevertheless, most bitcoin is still held in quantum-resistant address formats, and developers are actively pursuing potential solutions. Numerous initiatives are currently in progress throughout the crypto ecosystem. Exchanges such as Coinbase have formed quantum advisory boards, and developers are engaging in discussions regarding proposals like Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360, which examines new address types intended to resist quantum attacks.
Security researchers highlight that the wider internet, encompassing banking systems, government communications, and cloud infrastructure, would encounter disruption well before bitcoin itself is at risk. Simultaneously, post-quantum cryptography standards are currently being developed and implemented throughout the internet infrastructure. If needed, bitcoin may ultimately incorporate comparable cryptographic enhancements via protocol modifications.