The Bitcoin market structure is thought to have experienced a substantial transformation following the notable price decline observed on October 10, 2025. As the leading cryptocurrency appears to be on a recovery trajectory following the recent market turmoil, certain sectors are asserting that the bear season has already begun. As BTC remains below its opening price for 2025, the prospects for a bullish outlook on the world’s largest cryptocurrency are becoming increasingly challenging. Additionally, a noteworthy data point regarding a significant group of Bitcoin investors has surfaced, lending further support to the onset of a potential bear market.
In a recent update Julio Moreno presented an analysis that bolsters the theory that the Bitcoin bear market has commenced. The conclusion draws from the Balance Growth of a specific investor group referred to as the “dolphins.” Dolphins denote a category of crypto investors who possess significant quantities of a coin, positioning them between the smaller investors, often referred to as shrimps, and the largest investors, known as whales. Moreno specifically characterized dolphins as wallet addresses that hold substantial amounts of BTC, ranging from 100 to 1,000 coins.
Latest data indicates that the growth in the Dolphins’ BTC holdings has decelerated over the past year and seems to be trending downward. Moreno asserts that this downturn signals the onset of a Bitcoin bear market. Moreno disclosed that these Dolphin addresses surged year-over-year by approximately 965,000 BTC as the BTC price reached its current all-time high of around $125,000. With the BTC price hovering nearly 30% below its all-time high, the Bitcoin Dolphins currently hold a balance of approximately 694,000 coins.
Data reveals that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds based in the US have experienced net outflows in five of the past six weeks. In recent months, BTC and crypto treasury companies have faced significant challenges, as retail investors have seen losses amounting to tens of billions due to the prevailing hype. Although reports of crypto treasury sell-offs are infrequent, the decrease in these Dolphins’ holdings reveals a completely different narrative.