Altseason is once more the market’s beloved promise, with hopes extending all the way to 2026. However, at this moment, Bitcoin remains firmly in control. In the latest insights, Arthur Hayes contends that the gains from altcoins don’t vanish; rather, they simply shift locations. The inquiry, therefore, shifts from when altseason will commence to identifying where it is currently underway. The crypto community is already setting its sights on the upcoming year for potential breakthroughs. The chart below illustrates the reasons behind this: Altcoin surges were observed in 2018 and 2021, subsequently leading to extended phases of lackluster performance. At this moment, altcoins are approaching long-term support levels against BTC, reminiscent of previous pre-altseason phases. However, rather than an immediate breakout, numerous projections currently indicate that 2026 will serve as the next significant window.
Bitcoin dominance has surged back to approximately 59.6%, maintaining its position near recent highs instead of declining. Capital remains heavily concentrated in BTC. The altcoin season index currently sits at 35, significantly under the level required for altcoins to outperform. Altseasons commence only when BTC dominance experiences a decisive breakdown and the index maintains elevated levels. Industry experts are anticipating an altseason next year, although their justifications differ.
Ethereum has a track record of spearheading altcoin rallies. This trend has the potential to recur, particularly with the increase in institutional involvement. Recently, JPMorgan has made headlines by launching an on-chain fund on Ethereum. Simultaneously, stablecoin volumes have surged to unprecedented levels. The convergence of these factors bolsters the argument for a possible Ethereum-led altseason in 2026. “… institutions and retail investors alike are on the hunt for yield within the DeFi ecosystem of the world’s computer. As we approach 2026, it appears that investors can count on ETH alongside the other major players.
Altseason is perpetually on the horizon, but… Arthur Hayes offers a unique perspective on the market. He believes that altcoin season isn’t just a singular event that everyone anticipates; it’s a continuous phenomenon occurring in various corners of the market. The reason many traders believe they’ve “missed it,” he contended, is that they possessed the incorrect assets. Hayes stated, “There is always an altcoin season happening… and if you’re always saying altcoin season isn’t there, it’s because you didn’t own what went up…” He cautioned that the upcoming cycle should not be anticipated to replicate previous ones, where identical tokens and narratives resurfaced. This time, the victors are not the same. “Once more, we are witnessing altcoin season. You simply chose not to take part in it.” He pointed out instances such as Hyperliquid, which skyrocketed from a low single-digit launch price to significant gains, and Solana, which experienced a strong rebound after its collapse in 2022. Bitcoin continues to hold its dominance in the market today, but the potential for an altseason could emerge in 2026. Arthur Hayes highlights that altcoin gains are already in motion.