The main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), may be on the verge of a fresh rally after hitting a new weekly high above $112,000 lately. This movement could signify the concluding stage of the existing cycle for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency landscape. According to market researcher, this upswing may continue for another 50 days or so. It highlights that Bitcoin is currently 95% through its cycle, which has lasted 1,017 days from the November 2022 lows. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, indicating that this cycle’s peak might occur between late October and mid-November 2025.
The analysis underscores the usual connection between Bitcoin’s Halving events and the price peaks that follow. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have elapsed, and historical data indicates that price peaks typically happen 518 to 580 days after these events. As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin is presently 77% to 86% along this timeline, entering what the analyst describes as the “hot zone”—a phase characterized by increased volatility and possible price fluctuations. Bitcoin’s price trajectory following the Halving event. But, that past patterns show that, following a high, Bitcoin usually undergoes a sharp collapse, sometimes falling by 70% to 80% over a period of 370 to 410 days. The anticipated bearish phase is expected to last through the first and second quarters of 2026, with historical data indicating a 100% likelihood of a bear market occurring that year. Prior to this possible decline, the analyst anticipates a last rally, with approximately 50 days left until the market could reach its peak.
September, typically seen as a less favorable month for Bitcoin, has demonstrated an average drop of 6.17%. While third quarter statistics may show variability, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average often indicates a downturn because of more significant losses. The usual seasonal trend indicates that a disappointing September might be succeeded by improved performance in October and November, with September 17 highlighted as a key date to monitor by the analyst. The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $52,300 and the 50-week SMA at $95,900 are key support levels. The daily chart reveals further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point and a 200-day SMA. Local support in the range of $107,700 to $108,700, with resistance established between $113,000 and $114,100. As we look forward, both short-term and long-term trading indicators are presently reflecting a bearish sentiment.
If Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of 107,000 to 108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%. Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners seem to be doing well, with the mining cost set at $95,400, indicating a robust market atmosphere with low capitulation risk. Lastly, the analyst warns about the possibility of a market peak as we approach the altcoin season in October and November.