In order to profit from a possible market panic, one analyst has planned buys at lower price levels due to Bitcoin’s (BTC) lack of short-term bullish drivers and deteriorating technical picture. “I will leave bids at $94,0000 and $82,000 in case of a freakout,” Brent Donnelly. If my perspective on reacceleration, fiscal dominance, and the Fed as a puppet show holds true, bitcoin will ultimately gain from it. However, at present, it is behaving more like a speculative investment rather than a reliable store of value.
There is a lack of a clear short-term bullish narrative. Donnelly explained that the excitement surrounding digital asset treasuries, or corporate adoption of BTC as a treasury asset, is diminishing, and the seasonal effects linked to bitcoin’s halving event are shifting towards a bearish outlook. Historical data indicate that bitcoin’s bull markets generally reach their peak 16 to 18 months post-halving event, succeeded by a bear market lasting about a year. Since the last halving occurred in April 2024, this pattern indicates that the current bull run may be nearing its conclusion, possibly leading to a prolonged phase of bearishness. The market has changed as a result of the institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs, according to some analysts, and halving cycles are no longer relevant because miner flows now make up less than 5% of the market volume.
Donnelly pointed out bitcoin’s double top, which is a bearish reversal pattern. “I guess bitcoin’s weekend dump after the dovish Jackson Hole speech from Powell was a red flag and now we have a double top in BTC with the first one on Crypto Week at the White House and the second on the ETH party hosted by Bitmine,” he stated. Since then, prices have rebounded to that level—which has now become resistance—in a classic breakdown and retest pattern. Markets frequently return to key breakdown levels to assess the strength of sellers before possibly triggering more significant declines. In other words, BTC has reached a crucial turning point.
A clear move above the specified level would diminish the bearish argument. Conversely, a downward movement would strengthen the bearish trend, paving the way for a more significant decline. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report may be crucial. A stronger-than-anticipated reading could challenge expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may lead to a decline in bitcoin prices. In expectation of a downward trend, certain traders have been acquiring undervalued BTC.