Crypto market feels drafty as Fed shifts gears and ETF outflows surge

Analysts suggest that the crypto market is at a critical crossroads, as general sentiment shifts from neutral to bearish. Flagship cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum have slipped below key support levels, while altcoins exhibit a varied performance, indicating a lack of cohesive momentum across the market. On the macro front, remarks from the US Federal Reserve Chair have altered the discourse, indicating a heightened focus on labor market stability rather than stringent inflation management. In response, markets are currently factoring in further rate cuts for the remainder of the year—a dovish shift that analysts suggest could provide short-term support to risk assets such as Bitcoin, particularly if forthcoming US data continues to show signs of weakness.

In a sign of increasing caution, ETF flows have shifted to negative territory: on September 23, Bitcoin funds experienced outflows totaling $103.8 million, whereas Ethereum products faced a more significant exit of $140.8 million. The significant decline highlights a reduction in institutional risk appetite, dampening any short-term optimism and reinforcing the persistent volatility in the market. Following a decline beneath $112,000, the leading currency has exhibited a modest rebound. At last check, Bitcoin was trading at $112,643, reflecting a decline of 0.27 percent over the preceding 24 hours. The asset experienced fluctuations ranging from $111,229 to $113,351 throughout the session. The daily trading volume experienced a notable increase, reaching $50.26 billion, while the market capitalisation held firm at $2.24 trillion, thereby solidifying Bitcoin’s position as the preeminent digital asset globally. Riya Sehgal, posits that the prevailing trend in cryptocurrency reflects a neutral to bearish sentiment. “The decline of Bitcoin below crucial support levels renders the forthcoming downside wave pivotal.”

From a technical standpoint, Sehgal posits that immediate resistance is situated between $113,600 and $114,000. A failure to reclaim this zone could potentially expose BTC to levels of $110,500 and even $107,500. Meanwhile, as per reports, the primary support level for the flagship currency is identified within the $111,600–$111,800 range, while resistance is noted at $112,600–$112,800. The structure exhibits a modest bearish inclination unless BTC is able to reclaim and sustain levels above $113,000. A breach beneath $111,600 may pave the way for further declines. Currently, sentiment remains cautious, characterized by a lack of strong conviction on either side. Ethereum is currently facing challenges, consolidating beneath $4,220, with significant resistance observed in the $4,280–$4,370 range. At last check, ETH was trading at $4,174, down 0.82 percent, with intraday price fluctuations between $4,081 and $4,227. Trading volume reached 35.53 billion dollars. Ethereum is currently about 15 percent lower than its recent high of $4,953, which was attained on August 25, 2025. At present levels, without a significant breakout, Sehgal posits that ETH is susceptible to further corrections toward the range of $3,880 to $3,750.

Meanwhile, Harish Vatnani, believes that technically, the immediate resistance for Ethereum lies at the range of 4,400 to 4,500, marked by the descending trendline connecting recent lower highs and a rectangle top. The key support, he noted, is identified at the $3,800 USDT level, which represents the next logical target. The breakdown candle is linked to a significant rise in trading volume, frequently signaling panic selling or the realization of profits by institutions. The preceding weeks exhibited a decrease in volume amid consolidation—a typical configuration for either a breakout or breakdown, which ultimately manifested to the downside,” stated Vatnani.

Astar was the top performer among the altcoins with a 24 per cent rally on Wednesday. Further, Zcash, ether.fi, Quant, Immutable, Sky, PancakeSwap, Pi, Mantle, Flare, Conflux, Pyth Network, Monero, Tezos, BNB were other notable gainers, rising in the 2–12 per cent range on Wednesday. Conversely, 0G, MemeCore, Hyperliquid, DeXe, Solana, World Liberty Financial, Pendle, Avalanche, Story, XDC Network, OKB, Worldcoin, Bittensor, Aerodrome Finance, and Stellar were the top laggards, witnessing a decline of up to 12 per cent.